LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Crude is witnessing a nice recovery after getting support near 2639 which was 113% Fibonacci extension of a bullish attempt from 2720 to 3340 that took place in February 2015. Harmonic shark pattern is clearly visible on daily chart. Currently crude is trading at 3366 staying above 3340, which was top formed during bullish attempts in February. Stochastic is staying above 50 and %K has formed a cross above %D in positive territory favours bullishness in this counter. If crude holds above 3366-70 zones decisively then it will increase odds for completion of this shark that completes at 3614 or 3861 zones. Any failure of 3100 may invalidate current bullish expectations.

Crude on Nymex is currently trading at $47.38 zones. Crude has been consolidation in a range among $44 to 50 for last few days. A potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is visible on 240 minutes chart and confirms above a 49.80-50$ zones. Recently 5 periods moving average has crossed above 13 periods moving average on this chart and both short term moving averages are staying above 50 periods moving average hints strength in this counter. 14 periods RSI is fluctuating among 40 and 60 levels suggests a sideways momentum. Outlook remains sideways until we get a clear breakout above $50 whereas breakout above $50 would call for a rally towards $52.50-54.50 zones. Areas of $46 to 45.50 would remain in focus to keep this pattern valid and any failure of those levels may trigger sharp declines in this counter.

Crude oil on MCX is currently trading near 2817 zones. A perfect bullish crab pattern is clearly visible on mcx crude weekly chart that completes near 161.8% extension of leg XA near 2735 zones. Extreme oversold reading on stochastic also hints a possible recovery to offload oversold readings. Traders can look for buying opportunities near 2735-2700 and can use 2600 areas as stop loss for longs, in case of sustained move below 2700 current down trend may extend towards 2500-2300 and more down side.

Fundamental Summary: Crude has been trading in a nice down trend and making new lows every day. Currently it is trading at 3418. Winter season is considered good for fuel sector and crude has been falling during 1 st half of winter session and hovering near $53.23. Falling crude price during winter and holidays season is irrational. We may see good demand during 2 nd half of winter season as winter will be on its peak and would trigger demand. Transportation activates are likely to increase during holidays season that also relates to crude oil consumption and will result in declining inventory and would be a supporting factor in coming days. We will see inventories will start declining during coming months and OPEC may also cap crude oil production which would trigger sharp recoveries in this counter. Technically crude on MCX is forming a bullish butter fly pattern and hints a possible recovery from point D that completes near 127.2% extension of move XA. 1 st accumulation can be ...

Crude oil has been moving in a descending triangle that can be seen clearly on chart provided above and now trading near descending trend line resistance of this triangle which is around 6150. Commodity has also climbed above its 50 days SMA and 10 days SMA is also ready to climb above 50 days SMA that is also a bullish sign overs short term time frame. MACD has given a bullish cross above signal line and now fluctuating near zero line and further stability above zero line would trigger strong bullishness in this counter. Stochastic is also getting support around 50 and now getting ready for a bullish cross that indicates strengthen bullish forces in this commodity. Immediate support is now placed near 6050 zones any failure below this level would neglect current bullishness and then commodity will try heading towards 5950 zones and closing below 5950 would bring 5800 and more down side. Stability above 6050 remains bullish for this commodity and any closing above 6200 would bring 6...