LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Natural gas had witnessed a nice bullish attempt from low of 155.40 to high of 198.30 and then started consolidating in a symmetric triangle. Recently it has climbed above the down sloping trend line of this symmetric triangle. Prices are also getting support near 20 periods EMA. MACD has climbed above zero line and staying above its signal line that also hints positivity in this counter. 3 bar pull back setup is clearly visible on daily chart. Today natural gas is trading with positive bias after staying negatively biased for last 3 days. Recommendation: Based on the chart and explanations above buying natural gas around 182-180 with stop loss below 177.50 for targeting 195-205 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

Natural gas jumped nicely after hitting areas of 258. Areas of 257 were strong resistance during the month of September 2013 that is now serving as good support. Today’s trading range is covering yesterday’s range on daily chart that qualifies as a valid bullish engulfing reversal pattern. If today commodity closes above 265 zones then it will attract more bulls and a rebound can’t be ruled out in coming days. Stochastic is now producing oversold reading and preventing fresh bears to jump in. Recommendation: Buying natural gas around 265-263 with stop loss below 259 for targeting 271-276-280 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

Above is 5 years weekly chart of Natural gas MCX. Aw we can see clearly in chart provided above commodity is getting support near 2011-2012 highs that are stand in the zones between 222-218. Commodity is holding well above 10 and 20 weeks SMA lines whereas 20 weeks SMA is also above 50 weeks SMA hints a bullish environment in this commodity. Prices are getting good support near rising trend line and 50 weeks SMA. 14 Periods RSI is also above 50 favouring bullish environment. Fundamentally winter season is considered good for demand prospective which is also a bullish factor for this commodity. Recommendation : Buying Natural gas among 230-225 with stop loss below 215 (closing basis) for targeting 270 and more upside might be appropriate in 1-3 months.

Sign of potential double top has seen in Natural gas MCX hourly chart. As shown in chart above commodity has been fluctuating near its 23 days old resistance at 238.50 but couldn’t hold the gains above the same to confirm a bullish breakout. As we can see in chart provided above commodity has broken a steeper (green dashed) trend line and now getting support at another (black) trend line which is supporting the areas of 234. At the same time bearish divergence has seen on MACD daily chart which indicates weakening momentum in this commodity. Now trader’s eyes will remain on the areas of 234 and any failure of this level would bring a retest to 231-226-221 and more down side. Stability above 238 would keep bullish scenario intact and then commodity would lead a rally towards 242-247 and 270 zones over the midterm time frame. Recommendation: Selling natural gas near the areas of 236-238 for targeting 231-226-216-206 with stop loss above 239 on daily closing basis might be appropriate....

Here is the daily continuation chart of NATGAS MCX January contract which is getting support at rising trend line around 188 and resistance at 196.40, RSI on daily chart suggest more weakness in this counter and sustained declined below recent lows 182 would offer areas of 174 and 165 as primary supports. Previous closing was 188.70, resistance will remain at 196 and bulls need to produce minimum 2 closes above the same to claim their presence.

Natural Gas closed at 152.30 down by 3.80 paisa yesterday after positive inventory data released by EIA which came 47B up by 27B against 20B prior. Yesterday’s fall was supported by 100-EMA and ascending trend line  at 149 otherwise it could lead further losses. immedaite resistance seen at 160 continue trading above this leve would signal recovery in this counter. support will remain at 149 breach of support would offer 142-137 as primary targets. recovery above 160 would signal resumption in uptrend and for likely targets 190-220 in short term Supports: 149/135 Resistances: 161-184 Recommendation: buying natgas above 161 for targeting 190-210-225 with stop loss below 154 might be appropriate.

Natural gas March contract on mcx currently trading at 139.70, symmetric triangle has appeared at the lower end of current bearish swing breakout above 143.20 would offer 148.30- 160- 172 as target for this move. 14 periods RSI above 50 line supporting bullish expectations. Prices are currently moving between short term and midterm moving average and taking support at short term moving average that is around 133 consolidations above midterm moving average that is around 142 would signal a bullish move for retest of long term moving average that is around 176. For this bullish view 133 will remain key support in case of failure of this pattern 143.10 area will turn in to strong resistance zones and fall till 125.20-117.50 can’t be ruled out. Today inventory expectations are -146B that is also supportive for bullish view. Recommendation: buying around 135-137 for targeting around 148-160-170 with stop loss of 133 on might be appropriate daily closing basis. 

Sign of harmonic structure has appeared on 240 minute chart of NATURAL GAS MCX which completes at 157. There are 2 hurdles at 135 and 142 consolidation above 142 would signal 157 to complete this structure. Recently it has broken a trading range 118-129 and nice follow up buying suggesting smart money is coming back in this counter. We have entered in this counter at 129 for expected targets around 141 and 157 in short term with stop loss of 124.