LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Crude is witnessing a nice recovery after getting support near 2639 which was 113% Fibonacci extension of a bullish attempt from 2720 to 3340 that took place in February 2015. Harmonic shark pattern is clearly visible on daily chart. Currently crude is trading at 3366 staying above 3340, which was top formed during bullish attempts in February. Stochastic is staying above 50 and %K has formed a cross above %D in positive territory favours bullishness in this counter. If crude holds above 3366-70 zones decisively then it will increase odds for completion of this shark that completes at 3614 or 3861 zones. Any failure of 3100 may invalidate current bullish expectations.

Crude on Nymex is currently trading at $47.38 zones. Crude has been consolidation in a range among $44 to 50 for last few days. A potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is visible on 240 minutes chart and confirms above a 49.80-50$ zones. Recently 5 periods moving average has crossed above 13 periods moving average on this chart and both short term moving averages are staying above 50 periods moving average hints strength in this counter. 14 periods RSI is fluctuating among 40 and 60 levels suggests a sideways momentum. Outlook remains sideways until we get a clear breakout above $50 whereas breakout above $50 would call for a rally towards $52.50-54.50 zones. Areas of $46 to 45.50 would remain in focus to keep this pattern valid and any failure of those levels may trigger sharp declines in this counter.

Crude oil on MCX is currently trading near 2817 zones. A perfect bullish crab pattern is clearly visible on mcx crude weekly chart that completes near 161.8% extension of leg XA near 2735 zones. Extreme oversold reading on stochastic also hints a possible recovery to offload oversold readings. Traders can look for buying opportunities near 2735-2700 and can use 2600 areas as stop loss for longs, in case of sustained move below 2700 current down trend may extend towards 2500-2300 and more down side.

Crude oil has been moving in a descending triangle that can be seen clearly on chart provided above and now trading near descending trend line resistance of this triangle which is around 6150. Commodity has also climbed above its 50 days SMA and 10 days SMA is also ready to climb above 50 days SMA that is also a bullish sign overs short term time frame. MACD has given a bullish cross above signal line and now fluctuating near zero line and further stability above zero line would trigger strong bullishness in this counter. Stochastic is also getting support around 50 and now getting ready for a bullish cross that indicates strengthen bullish forces in this commodity. Immediate support is now placed near 6050 zones any failure below this level would neglect current bullishness and then commodity will try heading towards 5950 zones and closing below 5950 would bring 5800 and more down side. Stability above 6050 remains bullish for this commodity and any closing above 6200 would bring 6...

An inverse cup and handle pattern is clearly visible on hourly chart of Crude oil MCX. Commodity is now attempting to breach key support zones of 5980-5960 that would result in resumption to proceeding down trend. Commodity couldn’t sustain above 6060 zones and witnessing a nice selloff during today’s session. Resistance for current move is now placed at 6060 any sustained move along with closing would neglect our bearish expectations and then we may see attempt towards 6140 and more upside. Stability below 6060 remains bearish and closing below 5960 would result in a decline towards 5650-5500 and more down side in coming days. Recommendation: selling crude on jumps around 6010-6030 with stop loss above 6060 on closing basis for targeting 5800-5650-5500 and more down side might be appropriate in short term.

Potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is appearing on NYMEX crude daily chart, which has neckline resistance near $97.50. Sustained move above 97.50 would signal continuation in bullish trend and then a primary rally would take it to 105-107 zones. Supports are now placed at $93.40 and $90 levels. Any failure below $90 dollars would neglect recent bullish developments and then counter may again turn sideways. MACD has given a bullish cross over and has been moving above zero line which indicates bullish momentum. 14 periods RSI is also moving in bullish territory. Recommendation: buying crude above 98 with stop loss below 93 (daily closing basis) for targeting 103-107 might be appropriate in short term.

Light sweet crude trading above its key resistance of 88.27 above neckline of inverse head and shoulder pattern.  Pattern suggesting $5-10 upside rally in this commodity. 14 periods RSI respecting ascending trend line support, momentum is bullish. Short term moving average holding above midterm and long term moving average supporting our short term bullish outlook on crude. Resistances: 88-93-100 Supports: 86-83-78 Recommendation: buying Crude  oil  around 87-86 zones for targeting 93-100 with stop loss below 83.50 on 4 hour close basis might be appropriate. 

The black gold moving up nicely since Oct. 2011 and made high of 110.54 during this rally. Recently a bullish breakout seen above 103 but due to low buying interest at these levels crude was not able to establish any big move and trading between ranges of 103-110 since February 17, 2012. Now bearish divergence on 63 momentum indicator suggesting a big selling pressure ahead in crude. Momentum indicator has already broken ascending trend line with bearish divergence has already given ultimatum to crude oil bulls for short term. 63 momentum indicators below 0 would signal a strong down trend for short term and crude may taste 95-90 zones again. Before further upside. Key support for this view will remain 103 and resistance will remain at 112

Crude is moving in a descending parallel channel and constructed a bearish bat harmonic structure all these factors are suggesting 100 zones as per strong resistance zones and bearish crossover on stochastic with our bought reading suggesting that reversal is near and resumption to down trend is likely till crude oil is trading below 100. Technical Recommendation: Selling around 99.80-100 zones with stop loss above 101.30 zones on 240 minute closing basis for expected target around 95.50-92 would be a good trading decision.

As per daily chart of crude oil it seems that 103-106 zones are still very stiff resistance zones in crude. Nice rally seen above 91 as I have written in my previous post of crude now stochastic indicator with overbought reading suggesting that reversal is near and a correction in this bullish wave till 95-94 area can’t be ruled out in short term. Penetration above 106 in near term is less likely failure near resistance would signal short term bearish activity for targeting around 95 in near term trader can avail the opportunity with selling around 102-103 zones with a stop loss above 107 on daily closing basis for our expected support  area around 95-90. On 4 hour time frame stochastic with bearish divergence suggesting that top is near and selling may take place any time 98 can act as minor support below this fall till said support will be in streets. 

As I have wrote about crude in my previous of September 17,2011 that I am expecting a fall of 10-15$ from current levels when it was trading around $88 mark. Now again crude is struggling near same down sloping trend line on daily chart and nice descending triangle formed on scale. That is suggesting 87$ as a very stiff resistance above 87 it would confirm an advance till 91 -100 dollars in coming days but 91$ will play an important role for 100$. Why 91 is so important??  Crude made $74.94 low during this swing and nicely reversed from bottom area of 75$ with double bottom confirmation and a break above 91 would confirm neckline breakout of this double bottom formation that will attract more bulls to the streets. This is the 4 th attempt to its down sloping trend line and crude is now struggling. If crude spends some time below 83.80 mark then a failure may occur and crude may slide again till $80-75 below 75 if manage to hold then a retest of 68-66 can’t be ruled out....

As per daily log scale crude is trading in down trend and taking resistance on down sloping trend line. Crude made high of 114.80 in may 2011 this year, and then a nice correction seen in crude form the high of 114.80. Now crude is facing very stiff resistance on its down sloping trend line. After a bottom of 89.61 crude retested this falling trend line and nice resistance seen near 101 and a nice selling seen near trend line resistance and a sharp fall seen till 75.70 after that level. Now crude has again retested this down sloping trend line and made 90.49 high during last week but after looking at charts it seems that professional traders are selling crude oil near resistance of this down sloping trend line that’s why nice selling seen despite of supportive inventory data during last week and crude made low 86.98 after a high of 90.49.   Bearish crossover seen on its stochastic indicator that is also supporting our bearish view and valid trend line confirmation and a rising wedg...