LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

MENTHAOIL September contract has been trading in a nice down trend and closed at 852 levels. A nice consolidation seen in this commodity among key support of 850 and resistance of 880 but couldn’t confirm any clear breakout during the consolidation. Today commodity has broken the key support of this range that qualifies a potential bearish flag and hitting a decline towards 800 zones in coming days. Next possible supports are 843 and then at 834 any sustained move below 830 levels would bring 807 on cards. Resistance is now seen at 870 and then at 880 any established move with closing above 880 may negate the validity of this pattern. Recommendation: Selling Mentha oil on jumps around 854-859 for target 835-808 with invalidation of 880 might be appropriate.

Sign of potential inverse Head & Shoulder pattern appearing on daily chart of COMEX copper after 5 months of consolation among Key support at $2.950 and Resistance at $3.400. 14 Periods daily RSI hovering above 50 levels and supports bullishness in this metal. Areas of 3.400 are now resisted by neckline of this pattern and breakout above that would bring a rally towards 3.800 levels in coming days. Copper can be next rocket among the metals pack.

Potential HNS is appearing on NIFTY spot weekly chart which has neckline support near the areas of 5600. Areas of 5600 are also supported by horizontal support which suggests these levels as very crucial support on daily and weekly closing basis. As per chart provided above if nifty manage to settle below 5590 for 2 daily and 1 weekly basis then down move would extend towards 5327-5080-4945 zones. Stability above 5590 on weekly closing basis remains safe for bulls and it may witness a recovery after retest to June 2013 lows 5566. Indian economy is in worst conditions. RBI in its policy review has cut India's economic growth estimate to 5.5% from 5.7% estimated in May which is underlying bearish factor for domestic markets. Rising crude oil prices in international markets while domestic currency is trading at all-time lows is also a serious concern and would keep inflation on top and it would be a big challenge to maintain current account deficit to a sustainable level. Fundamenta...

Head and shoulder top reversal pattern is appearing on Gold MCX daily chart. Gold has broken the up sloping neck line support of this pattern and now retesting that broken neckline near 27900 zones. Metal has placed immediate support around 27550 further stability below this level would attract more supply in this commodity and then a retest to 27200-26800 zones may take place. MACD is hovering near zero line and getting ready for a bearish cross below its signal line that would bring strong bearish momentum in this commodity. Recommendation: Selling gold on jumps around 27850-900 zones, with stop loss above 27950 (closing basis) for targeting 27300-26900 might be appropriate for short term. Currently trading at 27782, traders are advised to enter in said range only.

Potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is appearing on NYMEX crude daily chart, which has neckline resistance near $97.50. Sustained move above 97.50 would signal continuation in bullish trend and then a primary rally would take it to 105-107 zones. Supports are now placed at $93.40 and $90 levels. Any failure below $90 dollars would neglect recent bullish developments and then counter may again turn sideways. MACD has given a bullish cross over and has been moving above zero line which indicates bullish momentum. 14 periods RSI is also moving in bullish territory. Recommendation: buying crude above 98 with stop loss below 93 (daily closing basis) for targeting 103-107 might be appropriate in short term.

Nifty has completed its all primary targets after failure below the neckline of head and shoulder top reversal pattern. Today’s gap down opening with spinning top candlestick pattern near lower band of Bollinger with oversold reading on stochastic indicator hints a possible recovery in this index. If index manage to open gap up tomorrow then short covering may help this counter to fill the gap and closing above 5730 zones would activate buy signal based on Bollinger band trading system. Recommendation: buying nifty above 5730 with stop loss below 5690 (closing basis for targeting 5800 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

A classical head and shoulder reversal pattern has appeared on NIFTY daily chart which has broken its down sloping neckline support. According to this breakout primary targets for NIFTY spot would be around 5720-5700 zones. Pattern appeared with down sloping neckline and such kind of patterns are considered more powerful then flat or up sloping necklines. Traders can look for selling opportunities on jumps during the retest to broken neckline around 5940-5960 zones. Recommendation: selling nifty on jumps around 5940-5960 with stop loss above 6000 on closing basis for targeting 5720 and more down side might be appropriate in short term. Note* Levels are based on Nifty Spot analysis, Kindly adjust premium or discounts while trading Nifty Futures.