LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Above is 5 years weekly chart of Natural gas MCX. Aw we can see clearly in chart provided above commodity is getting support near 2011-2012 highs that are stand in the zones between 222-218. Commodity is holding well above 10 and 20 weeks SMA lines whereas 20 weeks SMA is also above 50 weeks SMA hints a bullish environment in this commodity. Prices are getting good support near rising trend line and 50 weeks SMA. 14 Periods RSI is also above 50 favouring bullish environment. Fundamentally winter season is considered good for demand prospective which is also a bullish factor for this commodity. Recommendation : Buying Natural gas among 230-225 with stop loss below 215 (closing basis) for targeting 270 and more upside might be appropriate in 1-3 months.

Provided is the weekly line chart of NIFTY spot. Here I am using simple approach to analyse current market behaviour instead using much complicated Elliot wave or Harmonic patterns. As we can see classical multi tops are clearly visible on this chart near the areas of 6340. This time index did a high of 6342 on the auspicious day of Diwali during Muhurat Trading but wasn’t able to produce weekly close above the 6340 levels to confirm a clear breakout. On longer term time frame NIFTY has been consolidating among key support of 4700 and resistance at 6340 since 2009. INDEX was moving up with weakening momentum that can be seen on RSI oscillator. RSI was not able to hit its previous highs that were placed during the previous attempts towards 6330 zones and now hovering under 60 zones is a clear case of bearish divergence and indicates zone shift that may result in consolidation or trend reversal. Rising parallel channel is also drawn on the chart above but index turned back from previous...

VADILALIND (NSE) has been trading in a nice descending channel and now an inverse head and shoulder pattern is clearly visible on daily chart. Stock is holding above its 20 and 50 days SMA and 20 days SMA has given a bullish cross above 50 week SMA confirming a short term shift in trend. MACD has climbed above zero line and now getting ready for a bullish cross above signal line that would attract fresh buyers in this stock. Stock has formed a breakout above neckline of inverse head and shoulder pattern. Now rally towards 200 days SMA (160) looks imminent and further stability above the same would extend current bullish move for a retest to down sloping trend line resistance of a bearish parallel channel. Recommendation: As per charts and explanations one can go long in this stock around 148-140 zones with a stop below 130 for targeting 160-180 in near term.

As we can see in chart provided above Nifty is witnessing multiple tops near 6090-6150 zones. Nifty has tasted that zone 5 times in last 6 months but every time it is facing selling pressure near the same. Recently we have seen another failed attempt to resistance zones which was confirmed by a bearish engulfing candlestick formation. Bearish candlestick formation is a bearish reversal pattern. Inverse head and shoulder pattern is also visible which has up sloping neckline. Inverse head and shoulders with up sloping neck line have strong bullish implication than normal head and shoulder. Any successive breakout above 6200 levels may witness an extensive rally of 800-1000 points from neckline. Election year is also approaching that would definitely prevent bulls to play blindly and we may see a withdrawal by FII before 2014 elections and there is no surprise if NIFTY start correcting from these levels and current highs may remain market top for next 6-8 months. It’s time to trade cauti...

A nice bearish attempt has taken place in Gold spot after hitting a high of 1329 on October 8, 2013. Gold has witnessed a decline of 78$ form its recent top as we mentioned in our previous post and now trading at $1282. Now a falling wedge pattern is clearly visible on 240 min chart which is considered as trend reversal pattern. Current moves also qualify a wolf wave sequence which has triggered the entry at point 5 and indicating a retest to the line drawn by connective 1-4. Inverse Head and shoulder pattern is also visible on hourly chart which has neckline resistance at 1290 and any successive penetration of neckline may lead a rally of $30. Bullish divergence on MACD is indicating weakening bearish momentum and trend reversal is likely. Any Failure below 1260 may neglect our current bullish expectations and then metal would try to head towards 1180 and more down side. Whereas stability above 1260 remains bullish and recovery above 1290 would bring more charm and then commodity wil...

As we can see in chart provided above, a nice down trend has been apparent in Gold spot. Commodity has recently broken through the support line of symmetric triangle and headed a low of 1277 after break down. The Base of this triangle has the range of 82$ which hints a decline of 82$ from the breakout level which was around 1320 zones. As per the triangle breakout now gold has the potential to hit 1240-1234 zones. 14 and 40 days EMA pair has been working well in this commodity and now 14 days EMA has given a bearish cross under 40 days EMA that also indicates that a down trend is in place. Immediate resistance is now placed near 1320 and then 1340 zones. Any sustained move above 1340 zones may negate the recent bearish developments of this commodity and then it may try moving towards 1390-1400 zones otherwise metal is open for a retest to 1240-1233 zones.

MENTHAOIL September contract has been trading in a nice down trend and closed at 852 levels. A nice consolidation seen in this commodity among key support of 850 and resistance of 880 but couldn’t confirm any clear breakout during the consolidation. Today commodity has broken the key support of this range that qualifies a potential bearish flag and hitting a decline towards 800 zones in coming days. Next possible supports are 843 and then at 834 any sustained move below 830 levels would bring 807 on cards. Resistance is now seen at 870 and then at 880 any established move with closing above 880 may negate the validity of this pattern. Recommendation: Selling Mentha oil on jumps around 854-859 for target 835-808 with invalidation of 880 might be appropriate.