LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

  Today silver has headed an intraday high of 39090 but couldn’t sustain above 39000. When silver down in last week of January 39000 was the first reaction high placed during the first week of February. Now we are focusing on 39000 if silver manages to hold above that level then price objective for bulls would be 39700-40000. Key resistance for intermediate down trend would be 40600 and any sustained move above this level would increase the probabilities for completion of a harmonic structure which is widely known as bearish bat and than a rally towards 44000-44800 can’t be ruled out. Stochastic is loaded with strong momentum and stability above 50 hints bullishness for this counter. Areas of 37333 will remain in focus as trend support and any failure of this support would weaken the momentum and trend will turn sideways. Currently trading at 38848.

International spot gold is currently trading at $1208.70. Recently Gold witnessed a bullish breakout above descending trend line resistance but failed to climb above $1223 which was the high placed on February 19, 2015. Gold is now getting support near psychological level of $1200 and areas of $1190 are very strong support zones on daily chart. An inverse head and shoulder pattern is also visible on 240 min chart that has support at $1190 and neck line resistance at $1223 zones. Any sustained move above $1223 would call for a fresh rally that would help this metal to retest areas of $1240-1245. Key resistance would remain near $1260 and any closing above those levels would call for more upside. 14 periods RSI is staying above 40 and favouring bulls. 3 periods RSI has also climbed above 14 periods RSI which is also supportive for gold bulls. On lighter note stability above $1195-1190 zones remains bullish for gold and recovery above $1223 would confirm a rally towards $1245 zones where...

We all are waiting for union budget 2015-16 desperately and assuming whether government is going to reduce or not, import duty on gold and silver. If tomorrow government of India decides to reduce import duty on bullions then it will be a positive trigger for international precious metals. However reduced duty may impact domestic bullions market negatively but it would be a good bullish trigger for international bullion markets as cheaper import cost will attract importers that would initiate demand for these metals in international markets. For international spot gold areas of $1222-1224 are providing a stiff resistance once if it is taken out then we will see attempts towards $1240-50 zones. Currently gold is trading near $1215.   Feel free to write me at sunirathi@hotmail.com for any query regarding any trade.

Gold on mcx witnessed nice decline on Friday and headed an intraday low of 26681 and took support near Fibonacci price cluster that stands 26660-720 zones. Areas of 26660 are also supported by a rising trend line and oversold reading on stochastic indicators keeps chances alive for a potential recovery from 26700 zones. Today gold has opened with an upside gap and maintaining itself above previous closing price which is also a positive factor for this commodity. In past we have seen nice recovery from 26700 during bearish attempts and long legged candlesticks near that level hints a strong demand zone around these areas. We are expecting uptrend to remain intact until gold holds below 26660 zones decisively and attempts towards 27100-27300 and more upside can’t be ruled out. Any closing above 27500 would help this commodity to resume its on-going uptrend. Recommendation: Taking longs in gold around 26850-750 with top loss below 26550 (closing basis) for targeting 27200-27450 and mor...

Crude on Nymex is currently trading at $47.38 zones. Crude has been consolidation in a range among $44 to 50 for last few days. A potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is visible on 240 minutes chart and confirms above a 49.80-50$ zones. Recently 5 periods moving average has crossed above 13 periods moving average on this chart and both short term moving averages are staying above 50 periods moving average hints strength in this counter. 14 periods RSI is fluctuating among 40 and 60 levels suggests a sideways momentum. Outlook remains sideways until we get a clear breakout above $50 whereas breakout above $50 would call for a rally towards $52.50-54.50 zones. Areas of $46 to 45.50 would remain in focus to keep this pattern valid and any failure of those levels may trigger sharp declines in this counter.

Nifty spot has been moving in a rising channel and now trading at 8715 near upper edge of this channel. 8713.48 is 113% Fibonacci extension of bearish attempt from 8626.95 to 7961.35. Point ‘b’ was 70% correction of move ‘xa’ and recent breakout above 8627 zones has triggered possibilities for a harmonic pattern which is widely known as bearish crab pattern and this pattern completes near 9038-9060 zones. If today nifty fails to produce closing above psychological resistance of 8700 then we may see some consolidation that may be negatively biased and take nifty towards 8620-8450 zones. All in all market trend remains bullish until we get 2 consecutive negative closes on daily basis. Nifty has the potential to hit 8800-8910-9030 zones during this bullish whereas 2 consecutive negative closes may invalidate our bullish expectations.

Gold spot is currently trading at $1255; recently it has formed a bullish breakout above neckline resistance of an inverse head and shoulder pattern and hints a possible rally towards 1300-1320 zones in coming days. 14 periods RSI has 60 levels for the first time and confirms a zone shift on this indicator and supportive for gold bulls. Retest to 1235-1225 zones can’t be ruled out but traders can use those opportunities to buy this metal for a short term rally. Key support would remain at 1160$ for this outlook.