NIFTY: Test of 200 Days SMA Might Result in Profit Taking

Nifty spot has successfully tested its flip resistance near 8000 and witnessed nice selling pressure after hitting intra-day high of 7978.45 and settled at 7912.05. Prices are facing resistance near 200 days SMA and 50% correction level of entire bearish attempt from top of 9119.20 to low of 6825.80. Nifty has been witnessing a consolidation in a small range from last 3 days that marks possibility of a bearish breakaway candlestick pattern which consists 5 candlesticks. We need 1 more candle to confirm completion of this pattern. MACD has been staying bullish territory but historical movement on this indicator hints overbought reading and might bring a reversal in this counter. 14 periods daily RSI is also around 67% and remains favourable for bears as long as RSI zone shift takes place. In this set-up we are using 2 moving average system to determine long term trend but short term ( 50 days) moving average is below long term (200 days) moving average that suggests a clear down trend.
Immediate resistance is now seen near 8000 zones. However, retest to these levels can’t be ruled out but we need stability above 8000 to confirm a move towards 8400-8600 zones. Stability below 8000 will remain favorable for bears and primary profit booking might take this index towards 7700-7550 zones. Areas of 7450 are supported by up sloping 50 days SMA and a temporary bounce can’t be ruled out from those levels in case if nifty fails to hold 7700.

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