Is Party Over for Nifty Bulls or Still More to Go?

#NIFTY index settled at 9859.90 up by 306.55 points on Thursday. It was a trading holiday in India on Friday but #SGX_NIFTY witnessed good decline on Friday that will cause a gap down opening in domestic markets today.

On Friday nifty successfully tested its 50 days SMA that stands near 9836. Now areas of 9800 will remain crucial to watch out in next few days. If market consistently holds above 9840 zones then we will see this index retesting areas of 10100-10700 zones. A death cross between 50 and 200 days SMA has already taken place during the month of March 2020 and it has been observed in past when a down trend is triggered by a death cross it can last up 8 months 16 months easily. Market is already up by 31% and further upside from these levels seems less likely but still if index manages to hold above 9840 consistently then one must be ready for a retest to 10100-10600 zones. Areas of 10700-10800 will remain a crucial turning point.

Crucial support is placed at 9300-9250 zones, retest to these levels can’t be ruled out and seems likely but stability below 9250 needed to confirm any deeper correction towards 8900-8600 zones.

Over-all we are in a down trend and currently stuck in a bullish leg which is a bounce back against a decline and further upside from these levels seems limited whereas any bearish trigger from crucial resistance areas will help bears to get back in control. This view is likely to remain valid for next 2-4 months.

Comments

Praveen Jangra said…

Thank you sir for this valuable information.

May 4, 2020 at 8:57 AM

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Nifty Options Weekly Expiry; MAX PAIN stands at 13400

#NIFTY #INDEX currently trading at 13438, down by 90 from previous close. Today index has opened gap down and taken out the low placed yesterday at 13449 triggering primary weakness in market for the day. Immediate support is now placed at 13390, retest to this level can’t be ruled out but stability below 13390 will result in to further weakness and then attempt towards 13350-13310 zones can’t be ruled out. Key support will be at 13300 and further stability below that level will bring more weakness. Resistance is now placed at day high which stands at 13488, any sustained move (Less likely) above that level will bring some relief to bulls and then attempt towards 13540-13590 can be seen. On #option_chain heavy #call_writing is being done at 13500-13600 strikes where as short covering is visible in 13450 and 13500 puts whereas longs build up seen in 13400 puts with high volume. Based on current #OI position level of #option_pain stands at 13400 thus based on current data at 10:52AM...

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