LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Gold has been trading in a rectangle ranging among key support of 28200 and resistance at 30800 from past 7 months. Recently commodity has broken through the support of 28200 and headed a low of 27770 during bearish attempt but couldn’t get enough selling forces and climbed back above 28200 in next trading session. Today again Metal faces selling pressure near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire bearish swing from high of 30737 to a low of 27770. MACD has given a cross above signal line but holding below line zero that indicates downward momentum in this commodity. 10 days SMA is also below 40 days SMA that qualifies as a sell signal based on moving averages. Immediate support is now placed at 28200 any sustained move below this level would confirm resumption to preceding down trend and then commodity will try hitting 27800 zones as primary target whereas further stability below 27700 would result in a decline towards 27200-26100 zones in coming days. Recommendation: Selling gold o...

Natural gas jumped nicely after hitting areas of 258. Areas of 257 were strong resistance during the month of September 2013 that is now serving as good support. Today’s trading range is covering yesterday’s range on daily chart that qualifies as a valid bullish engulfing reversal pattern. If today commodity closes above 265 zones then it will attract more bulls and a rebound can’t be ruled out in coming days. Stochastic is now producing oversold reading and preventing fresh bears to jump in. Recommendation: Buying natural gas around 265-263 with stop loss below 259 for targeting 271-276-280 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

Silver spot has been trading in a descending parallel channel and now breaking through rising support of ascending triangle pattern within this channel indicating resumption to bearish direction. However a bullish crossover has happened on short term and long term moving averages but no follow up buying seen and reversal occurred from resistance line of descending channel. MACD is hovering near zero and any move below zero would be added advantage for silver bears. Immediate support is now seen near 19.40 and any failure below this level would call for a retest to 18.90 zones. 18.30 zones. Key support remains at 18 and any failure below 18 would bring 17-16.70 on cards. Resistance is now placed at 20.10 and then at 20.60 any sustained move above 20.60 would neglect bearish expectations in this metal and then recovery can’t be ruled out for retest to 22 and more upside. Recommendation: selling silver on jumps around 19.70-19.90 with stop loss above 20.30 for targeting 18.90-18.30 and ...

Nifty spot is getting good support near 6130-6100 zones and has witnessed a nice jump from those levels. A potential rounded top is clearly visible on daily chart of Nifty that hints the weakening momentum but weakness is not yet confirmed by price action and technical indicator MACD. As we can see in chart provided above MACD has given bearish cross below signal line but holding above zero line that favours 6100 as very crucial support. Any failure below 61000 would confirm weakness in this index and then primary target for bearish swing would be support placed in November 2013 that was around 5965. In general stability above 6100 remains supportive for Nifty bulls and sustained move above 6355 would bring more charm. Recently Index has broken out above the neck line of inverse head and shoulder pattern that suggests a target for 6700 for current swing. Overall this rally is open for a retest to 6700 zones. Any failure with closing below 6100 would neglect this bullish outlook and th...

Gold spot is witnessing double bottom at 1180 zones and nicely jumped after hitting 1182 during this decline. Bullish AB=CD pattern is also clearly visible on daily chart and has completed its CD leg at 1182 and now suggesting bullish resumption from point D which is exactly near prior bottom of 1180. Prices have climbed above 25 days SMA which stands at 1220 and now getting support near the same. 14 periods RSI is also showing bullish divergence and supporting reversal in this commodity. Immediate support is now placed at 1220 and stability above this level remains bullish whereas failure of 1220 with daily closing may trigger bearishness and then retest to recent lows around 1190 and more down side can’t be ruled out. Resistance seen near 1250 zones and sustained move above that level would bring 1270 on cards. Key resistance remains at 1272-75 zones and sustained move above 1272 would result in a rally towards 1300-1360 zones in coming days. Recommendation: buying gold around 12...

Above is 5 years weekly chart of Natural gas MCX. Aw we can see clearly in chart provided above commodity is getting support near 2011-2012 highs that are stand in the zones between 222-218. Commodity is holding well above 10 and 20 weeks SMA lines whereas 20 weeks SMA is also above 50 weeks SMA hints a bullish environment in this commodity. Prices are getting good support near rising trend line and 50 weeks SMA. 14 Periods RSI is also above 50 favouring bullish environment. Fundamentally winter season is considered good for demand prospective which is also a bullish factor for this commodity. Recommendation : Buying Natural gas among 230-225 with stop loss below 215 (closing basis) for targeting 270 and more upside might be appropriate in 1-3 months.

Provided is the weekly line chart of NIFTY spot. Here I am using simple approach to analyse current market behaviour instead using much complicated Elliot wave or Harmonic patterns. As we can see classical multi tops are clearly visible on this chart near the areas of 6340. This time index did a high of 6342 on the auspicious day of Diwali during Muhurat Trading but wasn’t able to produce weekly close above the 6340 levels to confirm a clear breakout. On longer term time frame NIFTY has been consolidating among key support of 4700 and resistance at 6340 since 2009. INDEX was moving up with weakening momentum that can be seen on RSI oscillator. RSI was not able to hit its previous highs that were placed during the previous attempts towards 6330 zones and now hovering under 60 zones is a clear case of bearish divergence and indicates zone shift that may result in consolidation or trend reversal. Rising parallel channel is also drawn on the chart above but index turned back from previous...