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Crude on Nymex is currently trading at $47.38 zones. Crude has been consolidation in a range among $44 to 50 for last few days. A potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is visible on 240 minutes chart and confirms above a 49.80-50$ zones. Recently 5 periods moving average has crossed above 13 periods moving average on this chart and both short term moving averages are staying above 50 periods moving average hints strength in this counter. 14 periods RSI is fluctuating among 40 and 60 levels suggests a sideways momentum. Outlook remains sideways until we get a clear breakout above $50 whereas breakout above $50 would call for a rally towards $52.50-54.50 zones. Areas of $46 to 45.50 would remain in focus to keep this pattern valid and any failure of those levels may trigger sharp declines in this counter.

Nifty spot has been moving in a rising channel and now trading at 8715 near upper edge of this channel. 8713.48 is 113% Fibonacci extension of bearish attempt from 8626.95 to 7961.35. Point ‘b’ was 70% correction of move ‘xa’ and recent breakout above 8627 zones has triggered possibilities for a harmonic pattern which is widely known as bearish crab pattern and this pattern completes near 9038-9060 zones. If today nifty fails to produce closing above psychological resistance of 8700 then we may see some consolidation that may be negatively biased and take nifty towards 8620-8450 zones. All in all market trend remains bullish until we get 2 consecutive negative closes on daily basis. Nifty has the potential to hit 8800-8910-9030 zones during this bullish whereas 2 consecutive negative closes may invalidate our bullish expectations.

Gold spot is currently trading at $1255; recently it has formed a bullish breakout above neckline resistance of an inverse head and shoulder pattern and hints a possible rally towards 1300-1320 zones in coming days. 14 periods RSI has 60 levels for the first time and confirms a zone shift on this indicator and supportive for gold bulls. Retest to 1235-1225 zones can’t be ruled out but traders can use those opportunities to buy this metal for a short term rally. Key support would remain at 1160$ for this outlook.

Crude oil on MCX is currently trading near 2817 zones. A perfect bullish crab pattern is clearly visible on mcx crude weekly chart that completes near 161.8% extension of leg XA near 2735 zones. Extreme oversold reading on stochastic also hints a possible recovery to offload oversold readings. Traders can look for buying opportunities near 2735-2700 and can use 2600 areas as stop loss for longs, in case of sustained move below 2700 current down trend may extend towards 2500-2300 and more down side.

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Fundamental Summary: Crude has been trading in a nice down trend and making new lows every day. Currently it is trading at 3418. Winter season is considered good for fuel sector and crude has been falling during 1 st half of winter session and hovering near $53.23. Falling crude price during winter and holidays season is irrational. We may see good demand during 2 nd half of winter season as winter will be on its peak and would trigger demand. Transportation activates are likely to increase during holidays season that also relates to crude oil consumption and will result in declining inventory and would be a supporting factor in coming days. We will see inventories will start declining during coming months and OPEC may also cap crude oil production which would trigger sharp recoveries in this counter. Technically crude on MCX is forming a bullish butter fly pattern and hints a possible recovery from point D that completes near 127.2% extension of move XA. 1 st accumulation can be ...

Copper has been trending down and forming a bullish wolf wave pattern. Metal has completed all 5 points of this pattern and now recovering from descending trend line support. MACD has been staying in bearish territory but recently it has climbed above its signal line that hints weakening bearish momentum and development of a fresh bullish momentum. Areas of 399 are also supported by 88% Fibonacci correction of a bullish move from 397.85 to 414.90 and 113% extension of recent bullish attempt from point 3 to point 4. MACD cross and presence of Fibonacci ratios near 399 zones suggests a strong support near 400-397 zones. Recommendation: As per chart and explanations above buying copper around 401-400 with stop loss below 397 for targeting 407-415 and more upside might be appropriate in short term, currently trading at 401.35